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  • 23-Mar-2012 04:55 EDT

Long-term Technology Issues and Projections


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Conventional hybrids have been marketed in the US for over a decade, with very high quality scores and high consumer satisfaction. However, their cost is still too high for mass market acceptance and their sales continue to be almost entirely to early adopters. This presentation will discuss mainstream consumer discounting of future fuel savings and how much they might be willing to pay, then focus on the potential for future hybrid efficiency improvements, synergies with other technologies, and cost reduction. The future cost reduction and efficiency benefits of the input powersplit and the P2 (parallel twin-clutch) hybrid systems are compared and projections offered through 2030.

John German, International Council On Clean Transport

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Evolving the current state of the art Hybrid Technology for vehicles with plug-in capability will yield three significant results, the displacement of petroleum with electricity for transportation, improved efficiency and reduced emissions. As the technology evolves from the Ford Escape Hybrid Plug-In demo fleet, Ford is in the final stages of development of the C-Max Energi, which will be delivered in 2012 as a highly efficient, full purpose vehicle designed to meet customer expectations without compromise. Presenter Charles Gray, Ford Motor Co.
Impact of driving patterns on fuel economy is significant in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). Driving patterns affect propulsion and braking power requirement of vehicles, and they play an essential role in HEV design and control optimization. Driving pattern conscious adaptive strategy can lead to further fuel economy improvement under real-world driving. This paper proposes a real-time driving pattern recognition algorithm for supervisory control under real-world conditions. The proposed algorithm uses reference real-world driving patterns parameterized from a set of representative driving cycles. The reference cycle set consists of five synthetic representative cycles following the real-world driving distance distribution in the US Midwestern region. Then, statistical approaches are used to develop pattern recognition algorithm. Driving patterns are characterized with four parameters evaluated from the driving cycle velocity profiles.
Toyota is researching and developing several advanced vehicle powertrain technologies that increase fuel efficiency and decrease the environmental impact of consumer transportation. This presentation will describe the Toyota Plug-In Hybrid (PHV) architecture, its major components, the Toyota PHV Demonstration program, and the benefits of the Toyota approach to Plug-In hybrids. The current Toyota PHV features all electric driving for approximately 13 miles, while maintaining the fuel economy of Prius even when the vehicle is in hybrid mode. The vehicle that will be available in 2012 will also be affordable, allowing many customers to enjoy the benefits of electric drive. Presenter Avernethy Francisco, Toyota Motor Engineering & Manufacturing
Consumers design different PHEVs than expert analysts assume. Experts almost uniformly assume PHEVs that offer true all-electric driving for 10 to 60 miles; consumers are more likely to design PHEVs that do not offer true all-electric driving and have short ranges over which they use grid-electricity. Thus consumers? PHEV designs are less expensive. These consumer PHEV designs do, or don?t, produce lower GHG emissions than experts? PHEVs over the next ten years. The devil is in the details, i.e., which powerplant emissions to assign to new electricity demand: marginal or average. If (based on marginal powerplant emissions) it makes almost no difference whether we sell consumer-designed or expert-assumed PHEVs over the next ten years, yet as the grid continues to de-carbonize all-electric PHEV designs emerge as clearly the better option, there is a trajectory we could be on from blended, ?short range? PHEVs to all-electric ?long range? PHEVs.

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